Are whites on the verge of becoming a minority of the American population? That's what some analysts of the 2010 census results say. Many go on, sometimes with relish, to say that this spells electoral doom for the Republican Party.
I think the picture is more complicated than that. And that the demise of the Republican Party is no more foreordained than it was a century ago when Italian, Jewish and Polish immigrants were pouring into the United States in proportions much greater than the Hispanic and Asian immigration of the past two decades.
The numbers do appear stark. The census tells us that 16 percent of U.S. residents are Hispanic, up from 13 percent in 2000 and 9 percent in 1990, and that 5 percent are Asian, up from 4 percent in 2000. The percentage of blacks held steady at 13. Among children, the voters of tomorrow, those percentages are higher.
But it's a mistake to see blacks, Hispanics and Asians as a single "people of color" voting bloc. The 2010 exit poll shows that the Republican percentages in the vote for the U.S. House were 60 percent among whites, 9 percent among blacks, 38 percent among Hispanics and 40 percent among Asians.
Simple arithmetic tells you that Hispanics and Asians vote more like whites than like blacks. The picture is similar in the 2008 exit poll.
Moreover, while blacks vote similarly in just about every state, there is wide variation among Hispanics. In 2010 governor elections Hispanics voted 31 percent Republican in California, 38 percent Republican in Texas and 50 percent Republican in Florida (where Cubans are no longer a majority of Hispanics).
As RealClearPolitics senior political analyst Sean Trende has written, Hispanics tend to vote 10 to 15 percent less Republican than whites of similar income and education levels. An increasingly Hispanic electorate puts Republicans at a disadvantage, but not an overwhelming one.
The same is true of Asians. In 2010 Democratic Sen. Harry Reid got 79 percent from Asians in Nevada, where many are Filipinos. But the Asians in Middlesex County, N.J., most of whom are from India, seem to have voted for Republican Gov. Chris Christie in 2009...
[T]here is an assumption -- which is particularly strong among those who expect a majority-"people of color" electorate to put Democrats in power permanently -- that racial consciousness never changes. But sometimes it does.
American blacks do have common roots in slavery and segregation. But African immigrants don't share that heritage, and Hispanics come from many different countries and cultures (there are big regional differences just within Mexico). The Asian category includes anyone from Japan to Lebanon and in between.
Under the definitions in use in the America of a century ago, when Southern and Eastern European immigrants were not regarded as white, the United States became a majority nonwhite nation some time in the 1950s. By today's definitions we'll become majority nonwhite a few decades hence.
But that may not make for the vast cultural and political change some predict. Not if we assimilate newcomers, and if our two political parties adapt, as we and they have done in the past.
I'm not as hopeful as Barone. The GOP has been terrible at reaching out to voters of color with a compelling economic message. If the party bothered to convince voters of color that supply-side economic policies offer benefits for them, perhaps they'd be rewarded at the ballot box. However, it seems that the GOP can't work up the energy to do so. Wonder why that is?
Mr Tucker:
ReplyDeleteWhat were your thoughts when you saw the results of the 2010 US Census?
* Blacks moving out of "Mission Accomplished Cities" into Suburbs?
* Blacks moving out of the "Highly Evolved North" per the views of Rachel Maddow, back down South - to be exploited once again?
The phenomenon for Black people is that we are aware of the "Punishment" for voting Republican. Thus these the "Black Flight Progressives" end up moving INTO Republican areas, living right next door to their ideological enemies yet continuing to vote for the DEMOCRATS. Their own fate in life is abstracted from their VOTE where they now live, able to consume the benefits and exclusivity of a "conservative run town". Yet their remain in good steed with the Black Establishment because continue to vote for the Democrats.
The real index that you should be pointing to, Mr Tucker - is the day that BLACK FOLKS can no longer RUN AWAY and instead that PROGRESSIVE DOGMA is staring them in the face as the LAST MAN STANDING, which determines the standard of living their are forced to live at at that particular time.